Strangely, it does not matter who rules the capital of USA , England ,
Russia or France. Can anyone remember the name of the Mayor of
Bombay ? Though Delhi is smaller than most cities , the election in
Delhi has become extremely important for politicians . The media
gives more importance to Delhi than all the states combined.
The
Congress controlled Delhi for 15 years. In 2013, AAP of Kejriwal
defeated the Congress decisively and took away all its vote banks . In
2013, BJP won 31 MLAs out of 70. Kejriwal ( AAP) won 28 and
Congress got only 8 MLAs, with the 15 years Chief Minister Sheila
Dikshit losing her own seat. Congress has not recovered from this
shock.
In 2014, after the BJP won the 7 Parliament seats in Delhi with
great margins, winning Delhi should be very easy. But state elections
are different from national elections and suddenly AAP of Kejriwal
has become a strong challenger .
Challenge for all parties :
The BJP has to win the Delhi elections as it has won all elections
held after Parliament elections. If it loses Delhi, then it will be a
major political setback. The Congress wants to stop the BJP
somehow. Even allies of BJP like Telugu Desam , Shiv Sena and
Akali Dal will be happy if BJP loses so that it comes under
control. In fact, within the BJP, the retired senior leadership wants
BJP to lose Delhi.
The Congress party must improve its performance over 2013 when It
won 8 MLAs. Otherwise, it will become an existential crisis.
Kejriwal must form the government . Or he will become a big loser
and be forgotten. A great political experiment in India, where a
non-establishment party led by Kejriwal could capture power in Delhi
will never happen again. So Delhi is an issue of survival for both
Congress party and Kejriwal. For the BJP, if it loses Delhi, then
Modi and Amit Shah will lose their prestige and entire Opposition
will start getting together to stop the BJP.
Congress party’s strategy :
The Congress is fielding senior leaders everywhere feeling that they
might get sympathy. If the Congress gets less than the 24 % votes
it got in 2013 , then its revival will be a dream. Many former
sympathizers and beneficiaries who got posts, became advisers ,
other political parasites and nominated MPs , Governors and some “
intellectuals “ are all waiting. The rats on a ship know if it is going
to sink and they jump off the ship first.
Kejriwal’s strategy and weaknesses:
Kejriwal won one of the greatest election victories in India in 2013
. Kejriwal performed miracles and won an election defeating both
Congress and BJP . After becoming Chief Minister, aside from poor
governance and drama , Kejriwal showed that he lacks soft skills. He
alienated all his close colleagues. Why have all his close associates
like Shazia Ilmi , lawyer Prashant Bhushan , Yogendra Yadav and
thousands of others left him after Kejriwal became Chief Minister ?
Thousands of distinguished people canvassed for Aam Admi party in 2013
. When Kejriwal became Chief Minister , he showed another side to him.
Ancient Greeks used to call this “
hubris “ or arrogance which comes with power and destroys the person. Or in India, it is called “
Vinasha kalum, Vipruthi Buddhi “.
He lost the great strength of un-paid enthusiastic political
workers. Kejriwal got thousands of un-paid intelligent enthusiastic
workers. After victory, Kejriwal embarked on a suicidal route where
he started insulting all popular leaders and now he is all alone. He
still has great support amongst the poor . But his major weakness is
that he has lost talented leaders to the BJP. Kejriwal has now got
the Muslim support since he contested against Modi in Varanasi and
continues to make noise against MODI. But he will lose middle class
and Dalits.
The other mistake Kejriwal committed is that he started attacking
the BJP for not having a great Chief Minister candidate . He was
right as BJP leaders were jaded and colorless. Kejriwal thought that
people will select him as others are useless. Amit Shah started thinking
and he corrected the mistake by inducting Kiran Bedi and Shazia Ilmi,
who are as popular as Kejriwal.
Napoleon said 200 hundred years ago “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making mistakes
“. Amit Shah found Kiran Bedi who is equal to Kejriwal. The lesson
that Kejriwal needs to learn is that continuous criticism of your
opponents will make them correct themselves.
There is also a desire in former supporters of Kejriwal to extract
revenge on Kejriwal . Earlier, Kejriwal had un-paid enthusiastic
supporters. Now he has
enthusiastic enemies .
BJP’s strengths and weaknesses:
The main weakness of the BJP was that there was no leader with
charisma in Delhi. BJP had to find someone to equal Kejriwal .
Surveys done by BJP showed that people wanted a strong dynamic leader
in Delhi and the BJP had none. Then the BJP approached retired Police
Officer Kiran Bedi to join it and she joined BJP.
The great Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu 2500 years ago said that
“the element of surprise can provide a great advantage. With an enemy,
surprise can be employed by attacking where he least expects it. “.
The BJP surprised both Kejriwal and Congress by suddenly bringing
in popular Kiran Bedi . Kejriwal never expected that BJP would
project Kiran Bedi as Chief Minister candidate as she is the female
version of Kejriwal. The BJP gained a great advantage by this surprise
move.
A large number of middle class people and youth who voted for
Kejriwal in 2013 have gone to the BJP. The economy is now better
than what it was earlier. Thanks to the fall in oil prices, inflation
has been controlled.
It is a triangular fight in Delhi. The BJP cannot get the same
votes for the Delhi assembly as it did in 2014 parliament election.
The BJP was very confident till a month ago. But there was worry that
it might not actually get a majority. If the BJP fails to form a
government in Delhi, there will be country-wide consequences. Such a
defeat will harm the BJPs’ efforts to grow in Kerala ,Tamilnadu ,
Andhra, Telengana, Odisha, Bengal and Assam.
The Bihar elections are coming in November, 2015. A defeat in Delhi
will make it difficult for the BJP to win in Bihar and will mean that
Modi will run into a serious united opposition . A victory in Delhi
will mean that the Congress and opposition will be de-moralized.
There is also a lesson for the BJP in its problems in Delhi. Its
leaders are not enough anywhere in the country . If the BJP wants to
grow in the country, it will have to import leaders . The people are
not un-happy. But the people are also not happy. Modi has to satisfy
people and not just the stock market and corporate sector . If Modi’s
personal popularity goes down, then the BJP will collapse . The Delhi
result will show which way the BJP is going.
Most importantly, there was no need for this expensive election in
Delhi. The political parties should have allowed a coalition to be
formed without making pious noises . Nearly 60 sitting MLAs are
contesting again. The country could have been spared this costly and
distracting election in Delhi. Though elections were held in Kashmir,
there is no government. Can we go on having elections till some party
gets a majority ? The election law should be amended to avoid repeat
elections. People are paying for this damage, not the politicians .
Frequent elections cheapens democracy .
The law must be amended to avoid a waste of money , time and
cheapening of democracy. All political parties united to pass hard
anti-defection laws to protect themselves, not democracy . Other
countries do not have such anti-defection laws. Why should India ?
By
Pullarao Pentapati 
